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Traditional causal discovery methods mainly focus on estimating causal relations among measured variables, but in many real-world problems, such as questionnaire-based psychometric studies, measured variables are generated by latent variables that are causally related. Accordingly, this paper investigates the problem of discovering the hidden causal variables and estimating the causal structure, including both the causal relations among latent variables and those between latent and measured variables. We relax the frequently-used measurement assumption and allow the children of latent variables to be latent as well, and hence deal with a specific type of latent hierarchical causal structure. In particular, we define a minimal latent hierarchical structure and show that for linear non-Gaussian models with the minimal latent hierarchical structure, the whole structure is identifiable from only the measured variables. Moreover, we develop a principled method to identify the structure by testing for Generalized Independent Noise (GIN) conditions in specific ways. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. 

An important problem across multiple disciplines is to infer and understand meaningful latent variables. One strategy commonly used is to model the measured variables in terms of the latent variables under suitable assumptions on the connectivity from the latents to the measured (known as measurement model). Furthermore, it might be even more interesting to discover the causal relations among the latent variables (known as structural model). Recently, some methods have been proposed to estimate the structural model by assuming that the noise terms in the measured and latent variables are non-Gaussian. However, they are not suitable when some of the noise terms become Gaussian. To bridge this gap, we investigate the problem of identification of the structural model with arbitrary noise distributions. We provide necessary and sufficient condition under which the structural model is identifiable: it is identifiable iff for each pair of adjacent latent variables Lx, Ly, (1) at least one of Lx and Ly has non-Gaussian noise, or (2) at least one of them has a non-Gaussian ancestor and is not d-separated from the non-Gaussian component of this ancestor by the common causes of Lx and Ly. This identifiability result relaxes the non-Gaussianity requirements to only a (hopefully small) subset of variables, and accordingly elegantly extends the application scope of the structural model. Based on the above identifiability result, we further propose a practical algorithm to learn the structural model. We verify the correctness of the identifiability result and the effectiveness of the proposed method through empirical studies. 

This paper investigates the problem of selecting instrumental variables relative to a target causal influence X→Y from observational data generated by linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models in the presence of unmeasured confounders. We propose a necessary condition for detecting variables that cannot serve as instrumental variables. Unlike many existing conditions for continuous variables, i.e., that at least two or more valid instrumental variables are present in the system, our condition is designed with a single instrumental variable. We then characterize the graphical implications of our condition in linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models. Given that the existing graphical criteria for the instrument validity are not directly testable given observational data, we further show whether and how such graphical criteria can be checked by exploiting our condition. Finally, we develop a method to select the set of candidate instrumental variables given observational data. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data show the effectiveness of the proposed method. 

Abstract. Carbonaceous aerosols have great influence on the air quality, human healthand climate change. Except for organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC), brown carbon (BrC) mainly originates from biomass burning as a group of OC, with strong absorption from the visible to near-ultravioletwavelengths, and makes a considerable contribution to global warming. Largenumbers of studies have reported long-term observation of OC and ECconcentrations throughout the world, but studies of BrC based on long-termobservations are rather limited. In this study, we established atwo-wavelength method (658 and 405 nm) applied in the Sunset thermal–optical carbon analyzer. Based on a 1-year observation, we firstly investigated the characteristics, meteorological impact and transport process of OC and EC. Since BrC absorbs light at 405 nm more effectively than 658 nm, we defined the enhanced concentrations (dEC = EC405 nm − EC658 nm) and gave the possibility of providing an indicator of BrC. The receptor model and MODIS fire information were used to identify the presence of BrC aerosols. Our results showed that the carbonaceous aerosol concentrations were the highest in winter and lowest in summer. Traffic emission was an important source of carbonaceous aerosols in Nanjing. Receptor model results showed that strong local emissions were found for OC and EC; however, dEC was significantly affected by regional or long-range transport.The dEC/OC and OC/EC ratios showed similar diurnal patterns, and the dEC/OC increased when the OC/EC ratios increased, indicating strong secondarysources or biomass burning contributions to dEC. A total of two biomass burning events both in summer and winter were analyzed, and the results showed that the dEC concentrations were obviously higher on biomass burning days; however, no similar levels of the OC and EC concentrations were found both in biomass burning days and normal days in summer, suggesting that biomass burning emissions made a great contribution to dEC, and the sources of OC and EC were more complicated. Large number of open fire counts from the northwestern and southwestern areas of the study site were observed in winter and significantly contributed to OC, EC and dEC. In addition, the nearby Yangtze River Deltaarea was one of the main potential source areas of dEC, suggesting thatanthropogenic emissions could also be important sources of dEC. The resultsproved that dEC can be an indicator of BrC on biomass burning days. Ourmodified two-wavelength instrument provided more information than thetraditional single-wavelength thermal–optical carbon analyzer and gave a new idea about the measurement of BrC; the application of dEC data needs to be further investigated. 

Systematic assessments of species extinction risk at regular intervals are necessary for informing conservation action^1,2. Ongoing developments in taxonomy, threatening processes and research further underscore the need for reassessment^3,4. Here we report the findings of the second Global Amphibian Assessment, evaluating 8,011 species for the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species. We find that amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate class (40.7% of species are globally threatened). The updated Red List Index shows that the status of amphibians is deteriorating globally, particularly for salamanders and in the Neotropics. Disease and habitat loss drove 91% of status deteriorations between 1980 and 2004. Ongoing and projected climate change effects are now of increasing concern, driving 39% of status deteriorations since 2004, followed by habitat loss (37%). Although signs of species recoveries incentivize immediate conservation action, scaled-up investment is urgently needed to reverse the current trends.